Predicting Trump’s Next Move

Years of MS Paint have paid off…

Ok, so here is my prediction. Trump will drag on his ‘contention’ of the 2020 election, doing everything he can to fire up his audience, and not admit defeat. He will build up the story that he was robbed of the election, and not to trust the ‘Media’. But this isn’t some kind of slow coup, or attempt to stay in the White House. Trump doesn’t actually want to govern, he will leave in January.

You can sense this in Trump and his team’s current actions. His various court cases are being struck down constantly as they don’t have strong legal grounding or sufficient evidence; they aren’t serious cases. Meanwhile numerous public ‘hearings’ are organised, spreading conjecture and hearsay in order to focus on the one court he cares about; the Court of Public Opinion.

Next comes Trump’s media company.

Having built an audience, and got them to distrust the media, he will launch his own platform (e.g. Trump Media), and call it the source of truth (and importantly—unlike Twitter—something he can make money directly from). Everything else is fake except Trump’s version of the truth (i.e. lies). Seems the perfect way to make money and keep his sense of importance; and we all know that that is literally all there is to Trump. This is a man who has claimed to know more about the military than generals, more about science than scientists….blah blah, you know all this by now.

Trump is the perfect conduit for others’ ideas, there is no depth to him, he is all superficial surface, and other entities are willing to put up with him to get their things through. But with Trump gone, the Republican party will have to move on, at least in theory. Trump won’t wait around and think of the best political strategy for the future; Trump doesn’t strategise, he doesn’t build coalitions. He will just do whatever he can to be the centre of attention.

So with no actual philosophy, or ideals to guide him, and no party platform for him to pretend to follow, he will bluster and scream, and make sensational claims to get the feedback he needs to feel good. He is a troll, and this is what trolls do.

He will (hopefully) be banned from Twitter if he continues his terrible ways, as his protection as a head of state will no longer be able to save him. Again, the perfect opportunity for him to claim persecution and drive people to his new platform. A platform he owns, and with which he can make money.

Will he run in 2024? Who knows. I am sure he would like to because the United States spends so much money on elections, and holding rallies/events at Trump properties is a great way to fill the coffers. But I hope the world gets to the point where there is no interest in Trump running. I hope the Republican party has some decent alternatives for those voters who don’t necessarily like Trump the person, but are willing to put up with him simply because of the Republican policies that come in his wake. The fact that Republican candidates did well in the election, but Trump didn’t, should give them reason to reflect on where to place their bets in 2022 and 2024.

This is my prediction for the rest of the Trump story. Either that or he will move to an island or some remote compound, and declare himself the true President of the United States in exile.


A Rant on Not Simplifying the Complex

Behold: My sketch attempting to simplify the concepts of simplicity and complexity.

I have been seeing people throwing around the statement “Defund the Police” in response to the Black Lives Matter protests lately. And without getting into the actual arguments for this, or whether this kind of response is what should be undertaken in response to systematic racism, or the assertion of systematic racism; instead it brought home for me the inherent problem we have in today’s society where people try and simplify complex issues. Especially when they try and distil them to slogans, or tweets.

This is especially relevant when Trump is insisting that Biden wants to defund the police, and his republican base start hearing this, and taking it as fact.

But this is a complex issue, and we need to ensure that complex issues, aren’t oversimplified. After all, what do we mean by defund the police? Without going to deep into it, you can imagine the two extremes here, the simple, or the complex. The simple explanation is that it means take all of the money away from the police. The police are the problem, stop funding them. Simple.

Then there is the more complex meaning. The police forces are being over-funded and relied upon to perform tasks, and enter situations, where they are not the best application of societal controls. Instead of throwing all this money at a bloated and semi-militarised police force, we should be taking some of the funds away, and focusing them in other more effectual areas. Better mental health support is one suggestion. In this sense defunding isn’t a total removal of funds but a reallocation of what is seen as the excessive and inappropriate funding of police forces. Complex.

If you put these arguments to people, they will respond differently to two different proposals. Yet when they are reduced to simple slogans and chants, opposing sides don’t understand which point they are either supporting, or opposing, without taking the time to really get involved.

They don’t agree with the other sides point of view, but they also wouldn’t agree with the other sides description of the problem. They are fighting two separate arguments.

I believe that many people who oppose ‘Defund the Police’ would actually support a lot of the initiatives it represents. But the opposition to defunding the police does not benefit from looking at this nuance, and discussing the problems, so they simplify it, and polarise it.

You can see a similar simplification and obfuscation with Trump’s announcement that he was going to build a wall, and Mexico would pay for it. Some people heard this to mean that Mexico would pay for the wall, as in literally be made to provide funding for the wall. Others insist that Mexico are paying for the wall through some other transnational or retributive terms, whether it be through favourable trade deals with the United States, or internal costs as Mexico has to change the way it deals with the United States. Either way there is the complex, and the simple.

Was Trump being purposefully obfuscatory when he said that Mexico would pay for the wall? Was he thinking complexly and meaning that they would pay in some other transactional way, but wanted the public to think that they would literally pay for it? I don’t think so. I don’t think Trump was thinking ahead, or thinking strategically. He was saying that Mexico would pay because he thought it could happen, and that people liked to hear this simplistic plan.

Trump is all surface, there is no deeper vane to try and unearth.

But at risk of spiralling into a Trump rant, I’ll leave that there.

So people can look at these things (Defund the Police, Mexico Will Pay) either way and say that Trump or Biden are lying, or telling the truth. Really what we need to take from this whole thing is that we need to speak clearer, and accept that things are complex.

Mexico isn’t paying for the wall, Biden won’t defund the police.

Mexico is no doubt feeling the effects of the Trump presidency, and simultaneously some wall is being built. Joe Biden does hope to address issues related top policing by changing he way the police force functions, and likely utilising current funding for other institutions.

The Simple, and the Complex.

I would argue that unlike in mathematics, the only way we are going to make these problems easier to solve is to avoid simplifying them, and focus on understanding the complexity.

Rant over.

The Five Stages of Trump Victory Grief, (now with Bonus Stage)


There is no way that Americans would elect a racist, sexist, liar to the White House.


Holy crap, people are actually voting for someone who wants to bring back torture and targeting civilians!


Although, if Hillary wins a few of these small states, and there is a last minute swing….


The world is screwed.


I guess there only so much he can screw up in four years; maybe this will be a good wake-up call for the U.S.

Bonus stage; pre-emptive Schadenfreude.

Oh boy; I can’t wait to rub this in Trump supporters faces when it all hits the fan.